Increasing Attainment Rates for Working-Age Texans

Attainment drives success

Bachelor’s degrees, associate degrees, and other postsecondary credentials correlate strongly with personal economic stability and success. For example, one study showed that college graduates typically earn more than $1 million more in lifetime wages than high school graduates (Carnevale et al., 2015). 

The data below concern the percentage of working-age Texans who attain conventional postsecondary credentials at Texas public institutions. Related to this goal, we are also tracking whether students attain what we call “credentials of value.”  

Texas’ future depends not only on people who are entering the workforce for the first time but also on those who joined it five, 10, even 20 years ago.

We expanded the scope to include workers aged 35-64.

We widened the age range of our attainment goal to better match the changing needs of our economy. Our original goal focused on Texans aged 25-34, but now we are also tracking attainment for people aged 35-64. 

This aligns with demographic trends in our state, which predict an increase in the proportion of Texans over the age of 44 in the next few decades (Texas Demographic Center, 2019). It also reflects the fact that many people who are employed today need additional skills to advance and thrive in the jobs of tomorrow. The Texas Workforce Commission estimates that as many as 1.4 million Texans could improve their position in the workforce by receiving some postsecondary credential. 

So Texas’ future depends not only on people who are entering the workforce for the first time but also on those who joined it five, 10, even 20 years ago. To serve this population, many two- and four-year schools in the state are expanding their range of short-term certificate programs and reenvisioning their approach to continuing and professional education. 

Attainment sees modest gains from year to year.

For both age groups, the percentage of Texans who attain conventional degrees and certificates has climbed almost every year from 2016 to 2021. That’s promising, but to reach our goal of 60%, we need to increase the rate of growth.  

The percentage of Texans aged 25-34 grew by 1.08 percentage points per year on average; at that rate, it will reach between 57% and 58% by 2030. For Texans aged 35-64, their average increase of .93 points per year would total just under 55% by 2030. 

Attainment numbers are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, which likely explains why they appeared to jump in 2020. That was the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, when metrics like enrollment went the other direction. But the people who responded to the census survey that year were likely more affluent and educated than the general population because getting responses to the survey was especially hard early in the pandemic.  

A more accurate picture of attainment across these age groups, and how it was affected by the pandemic, may take years to emerge.